About six years ago now, when policymakers in Canada started to get excited about international education, many hoped that foreigners might be able to subsidize our expensive system of higher education.  I don’t mean to put too fine a point on it, but the thinking was: if the Australians could manage it, presumably so could we.

To date, our results have been pretty good.  International enrolments keep rising. The money keeps on flowing, offsetting the weakness in government funding.  What could possibly go wrong?

Well, why not take a quick look at how the Australians are doing these days?

Figure 1 –International Student Enrolments in Australia by Sector.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Back in 2009, life in Australia was pretty good.  Growth was quick and steady in language schools, universities, secondary schools, and what are known as “non-award students” (basically, exchange students not pursuing Australian qualifications).  In vocational education, growth was off the charts.  Overall, enrolment grew by nearly 40% between 2007 and 2009.  All seemed well.

But then, for a variety of reasons (a high dollar, a few high-profile racist attacks, problematic visa rules), Australia managed to send all of this growth into reverse.  It started in vocational education – a sector which, according to international education expert Dr. Rahul Choudaha, caters primarily to students who are “immigration-driven” (as opposed to education-driven).  Then it spread to other sectors.

Figure 2 – Year-on-Year changes in New Enrolments

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(stats geek note: isn’t it cool that Australia can actually track new enrolments separately from total enrolments?  Why can’t we do that?)

How bad did it get?  By 2012, Vocational education had experienced three years of double-digit losses, meaning they had given up virtually all of their gains from the 2007-2009 period.  English language schools were in a similar position.  Higher education didn’t see quite the same drop, but because its students stay in school longer, enrolment effects take three years to work their way through the system.  Even if new enrolments evened out over the next two years, total enrolment will still fall by about 8%.  All told, the decline in new enrolments has been 24%.

Just how much all of this cost Australian institutions is a matter of some debate.  But think about it at your own institution: how big a hole would it blow in the budget if you had to cope with the loss of 24% of your international students?  At many institutions, you’d likely be looking at a drop in total revenue of 3 -4%.  That’s almost Quebec-style austerity.

Of course, it could never happen here, Canadians love foreigners, etc. etc.  But as those charts show, the market giveth, and the market taketh away.  Today’s winners can be tomorrow’s losers.  That’s the new reality.