Today, HESA released the annual global year in review of tuition fees and student aid for 2011, which you can read here. Put together by HESA’s network of over thirty associates around the world, myself and (mainly) Pamela Marcucci, it’s the first really global analysis of how cost-sharing is evolving around the world.

We looked at what we call the “G-40”; that is, the 40 countries which collectively comprise 90% of the world’s students and 90% of the world’s scientific activity. In essence, if you understand what’s going on in those countries, you’ve got a pretty good grasp of the world’s main trends. We were able to get reasonable information from 37 of those countries (Iran, Indonesia and Mexico were problematic). Of these, thirty-one charge tuition and of these, eighteen saw it increase last year. However, in ten of these countries, tuition increased by amounts either equal to or less than inflation, meaning that in only eight countries (one of which being Canada) did tuition rise in real terms. Taking all this together, one finds that globally, tuition at public universities increased by 2.58% last year. However, after taking the various levels of local inflation into account, it actually decreased by 1.76%.

Now this may sound like small beans – what’s 2% either way? – but the global average hides some larger swings at the national level. There were real increases of over five percent in both the United States and South Africa, and real decreases of over five percent in Pakistan, China, Hong Kong, Russia and Turkey. There were offsetting changes in student aid, as well: Chile, Colombia, Singapore, South Africa, Indonesia and Nigeria all recorded substantial increases in this area (though the last two were from a tiny base).

The outlook for 2012? While the news will be dominated by the U.K.’s 125% tuition hike, that will be offset to a certain degree by a 40-50% reduction in fees in South Korea. Apart from those two countries, we would expect few deviations from last year’s picture among OECD members. Outside the OECD, worries over political instability in a number of countries – notably China (where the Communist Party is undergoing its decennial leadership turnover) and Russia (where President Putin’s popularity is increasingly dependent on his ability to hand out subsidies) – will likely prevent tuition from rising much, if at all.

But there’s only so long that universities can go on seeing their student income eroded by inflation before quality takes a hit – particularly if their government subsidies are under pressure as well due to the recession. Two or three years down the road, it seems likely that much larger increases are in store.