Yesterday, we talked a little bit about what fiscal re-balancing between Ottawa and the provinces might look like after the pandemic, and I argued that on balance, the likeliest option was some type of uploading of responsibility for income support to the federal government.  But this might not be the only thing that changes after the pandemic: there are a lot of big, ambitious ideas out there about what a post-Corona Society looks like: lower carbon futures, expanded social security/protection futures (UBI/mincome futures?). But in addition to big ideas, there are also big fears (mainly: how in heck do we reel back social spending and avoid the longer-term consequences of hundreds of billions of additional debt) and also some big messes to clean up (a Newfoundland bail-out, the complete erosion of Alberta’s tax base, etc.). 

Add all this up and it is not too audacious to say that the next year or so are almost certainly going to shape the nature of the Canadian state for the better part of the next half-century.  With provincial government finances in disarray and the feds suddenly realizing they have a printing press at their disposal, it’s 1945 again: almost anything is possible.  The Overton Window will most likely never again be as wide open as it will be in the next six months for the foreseeable future.  By fall, as the dust settles, the true scale of our obligations become clearer and reality returns to financial and bond markets, the window will start closing again.  And presumably Canadians – being a cautious bunch – won’t move too quickly.  But those big decisions?  They cannot be put off too long.  The basic decisions on the shape of the Reconstruction can’t be delayed too far into 2021.

The thing is, though: the government in Ottawa is a minority one (and one which came second in the popular vote).  Its mandate to govern even in good times is an attenuated one; its mandate to make decisions that will alter the structure of the country for decades to come is non-existent.  So that means an election.  The only question is when, and how.

I don’t think many people are paying attention to opinion polling at the moment, but the Liberals are very definitely getting a bounce from the crisis.  That’s partly because their handling of the crisis has been reasonably good (the speed with which the CERB was set up was nothing short of amazing), but also partly because the Conservatives are leaderless and none of the candidates to replace Scheer have had particularly impressive showings during the pandemic (the bleating about how killing the carbon tax.  Put those two things together and what you see is the Liberals very definitely in majority government territory.

The Liberals wouldn’t be politicians if they weren’t looking at their current numbers and working out how fast they could get to the polls.  But I’m pretty sure Canadian voters would crucify any party that sent them to the polls before social distancing was largely over and done with and so I am sure that whatever cooler heads inhabit the Building Formerly Known as Langevin won’t pull the trigger in this calendar year.  But on the other hand, they can’t wait too long into 2021, either.

So that points really only to one possibility.  The Liberals will not wait for an election to lay out their plans for Reconstruction.  Budget 2021 will be the Reconstruction Budget.  And, precisely because it will lay out such huge long-term ideas, the opposition will have no choice but to vote it down (because Westminster) and this trigger an election.  Everyone will understand this logic months in advance which means the pre-budget Finance Committee hearings due this fall are going to be an absolute circus, with each party trying to lay out its own approach to Reconstruction.  

I think, though, there is a trap here for representatives of interest groups in Ottawa.  The temptation will be to offer the same old, same old, only with more zeros at the end because the government is “thinking big”.  But I think this is to mistake the nature of the historical moment we are living through.  Reconstruction is not going to be status quo with a few extra zeros at the end.  Reconstruction is going to involve some seriously novel thinking about the role of government and its ability to shape society and its institutions.  It may in fact be quite discomforting for some in our community.  If the post-secondary community shows up with just some big but traditional asks like “more money for research“ without any fundamental reflection on the country’s needs, and the sector’s strengths and weaknesses, this might end very badly.

I might be off a bit on timing – it’s possible that social distancing might make an election difficult before the early fall of 2021.  But mark my words: the next federal election will be about Reconstruction, and as such determine the country’s future for at least the next two decades.  Whenever the election actually happens, it will be fought on the themes of Budget 2021.  And those themes, in keeping with the regular Ottawa policy cycle, will be fought out between October and December of this year. 

So get ready.  We only have a few months.  The stakes are high.  And the status quo is not an option.