Saturday was election day in Australia, and pretty much everyone knew what was going to happen.  The clapped-out two-term Coalition (Liberal-National, i.e. right-wing) government, which was so internally faction-riven that it had three prime ministers in six years via a series of “spills” that Canadian political geeks find so thrilling: the smooth Malcolm Turnbull defenestrating the Jurassic Tony Abbott in 2015, and winning an election before being booted by caucus last fall and replaced by the somewhat more Conservative Scott Morrison. On the other side of the aisle, Labor looked to have a decent and experienced leader in Bill Shorten and to have mostly regained party unity that had been torn asunder in the Rudd-Gillard civil war – perhaps inspired by Jacinda Ardern’s success across the Tasman Sea. With this united front, Labor had put together a fairly ambitious progressive program to the electorate.

On the higher education front, the line between the two parties was clear.  The coalition under Abbott tried to cut grants to universities while allowing them to recoup funds through a program of radical de-regulation.  Those plans foundered in the Senate, where the government did not have a majority and could not convince the smaller parties to support the plan.  The country’s universities, after initially backing the plan (“don’t vocally oppose a government early in their first mandate” apparently being a universal rule in Government Relations) began to back off in the face of some public disquiet.  After two failures in getting it through Parliament, the coalition gave up and moved to a policy stance towards higher education probably best described as “active neglect”;  a freeze on funding growth for universities, combined with some boutique spending on research, along with a boost for vocational training.

Labor, on the other hand, promised a lot.  They promised a restoration of the demand-driven funding system, a truly remarkable formula in place from 2012 to 2017 under which in which the government paid institutions a set amount per student no matter how many students came and boy howdy was it effective at increasing access to higher education (it was equally effective at raising government expenditures).  They also promised a major increase in research funding. 

Recent history, opinion polls, and a well-known psychic crocodile all pointed to a change of government.  As the election approached, some of the peak education bodies began to use more forceful language in protesting against Coalition policies.  The higher education community – unofficially – began to hope: even if they weren’t fully sold on Labor’s ideas, at least the party engaged on the issues.

And then, after a moment of jubilation early in the evening when Tony Abbott went down to defeat in the tony Sydney riding of Warringah to independent Zali Steggall (improbably, she was the World Downhill Ski Champion in 1999), it all went sideways.  The coalition, defending the tiniest of majorities, actually gained seats in both the House and Senate.  The closest Canadian analogy was the BC election of 2013, when the NDP blew a “can’t lose” contest.  It was that bad.  Maybe worse.

And now, universities have three more years with a government that has so far yet to evince any interest at all in additional public funding.  More worrying is the fact that the alternative to public funding – that is, international students – may be under some threat as well.  In March, an Australian Broadcasting Corporation documentary accused the higher ed sector of compromising standards to attract foreign students.  And last year the government mused about capping international enrolments in major urban areas to curb overcrowding and rising accommodation costs (a step also taken by the Ardern government).  Before the election, the government opted for carrots over sticks, and proposed a set of scholarships for international students who study in “regional” (ie not too urban) universities.  But after, who knows?   In any case, hatches across the sector are now being battened down.  Perhaps the Morrison government will in time come to the view that publicly funding for higher education is a motor for economic growth.  But the betting right now is that the sector is mostly on hold until 2022.