A couple of weeks ago, I wrote a blog analysing the distributional effects of tuition reductions vs. targeted grants, and concluded that the latter was far more progressive in their impact than the former. In response, Carleton professor Nick Falvo wrote a piece on OCUFA’s Academic Matters website saying that I was “wrong about tuition”. Because some of his arguments are interesting – to his credit, he didn’t reach for the appalling argument that a regressive distribution of benefits is OK because the rich pay more taxes – I thought I would take some space here to respond.
Although Falvo claims to be demonstrating that my thesis about regressivness is wrong, at no point does he actually address the distribution issue. Rather, he essentially concedes this point, and then make a series of arguments about why tuition reduction is preferable to targeted grants despite their regressiveness.
Falvo makes five separate arguments about the superiority of a free-tuition arrangement over a tuition-plus-grant arrangement. The first is that free tuition is more “efficient” than grants because the administration costs are lower. But this is silly. In fact, SFA administration costs in Canada run about five cents on the dollar. Why you’d spend billions of dollars on one type of subsidy, just to save a few tens of millions by getting rid of the few hundred public servants who administer the existing programs, is a bit beyond me.
The second argument is, essentially, that grants don’t work because sometimes tuition rises faster than grants. But the more efficient solution to this – were this indeed a problem – would of course be to spend more on grants, not decrease tuition.
His third and fourth arguments are mutually contradictory. One is that targeted subsidies create disincentives to work (the “welfare wall” argument); the other is that targeted grants are too complicated to understand, and that free tuition is more effective because it is easier to understand than a fees-plus-aid strategy. The first implies that families have quite a good understanding about how subsidies work, and adjust their behaviour accordingly; the second implies that they don’t. My view is that the second theory is more likely to be the correct one. Sticker prices are simpler to understand than net prices. The question really is whether this actually matters. How much damage does poor communication actually do to access? Is it sufficiently bad that we should spend an extra couple of billion on it? For that to be the case, one would need to prove not simply that some people are deterred by financial barriers (undoubtedly true), but that they are deterred in large numbers because of their misunderstanding of extant financial incentives. On the basis of existing evidence, I’d guess that’s not the case.
Falvo’s final point is that free tuition is a more politically saleable proposition than grants – because more people will benefit, it is easier to create and maintain voting coalitions in favour of it. Even if that’s true, it is an appalling argument. Stephen Harper certainly sold the Universal Child Care Benefit much easier than Paul Martin sold the (targeted) expansion of daycare spaces, but that doesn’t make it good public policy.
The argument that the only way, politically, to get a dollar to the youth from the poorest quartile is to give three dollars to youth from the richest quartile is an awfully convenient one… if you’re from the top quartile. I simply don’t believe we have to settle for a system where the only way to get money to the needy is to buy-off the rich. And I remain completely baffled why people who claim to be progressive actively promote such an idea.
Occasionally I reflect on why we don’t question tuition-free secondary school when tuition-free post-secondary is so controversial. I imagine you could answer that question much more clearly and evidence based than I. However, my sense is that it is partly because we want universal and equal access to secondary school, we want universal completion, we want equal/comparable serviced across institutions, and students aren’t likely to extend their time in Secondary School or complete more than one Secondary School diploma. None of these factors are at play in Post Secondary. I suspect there might be some additional argument against lower/free tuitions for Post Secondary somewhere in there.
People tend to glom on to what they want to believe first, and then look for supporting arguments.
Even good social scientists are not always Bayesian in their opinions: they don’t always adjust their beliefs based on new evidence. Perhaps that is where we can find a partial explanation to why some ‘progressives’ promote lower/free tuition. There’s just something that on the surface FEELS progressive about it. But argument and evidence that you provide, will hopefully, allow such people to shake the yoke of first impressions if they are truly intellectually honest and Bayesian thinkers.
Carrie, for your repeated use of the concept of Bayesian social science in your posts here, I have only one thing to say: marry me.
I’m afraid that I’m not a social scientist, never mind a Bayesian one, but from my English-lit perspective, I think part of the problem might arise from the fact that “progressive” has two meanings: one is a label for a particular sort of politics, roughly opposed to social wealth gaps and such, and the other is a term of art in tax policy. It’s not really a contradiction for a regressive tax policy to be politically progressive. Moreover, there might actually be reasons to maintain the middle class — it reduces at least the polarization of social inequality to have a middle group — and certainly there are reasons to get them on-side. That’s one of the reasons why we have (say) universal old-age benefits.
Two other notes: first, when counting the cost of anything paperwork heavy, we usually count most of the labour involved as free. We don’t ask how much time it takes students and their families to fill in the paperwork, or how much time it takes universities to provide relevant paperwork about tuition and living expenses or such. And we all know of cases of students who didn’t receive the loan to which they were entitled because they made some error on the paperwork, or didn’t negotiate it soon enough, or failed to bring the right forms, or whatever. This is inefficiency, though it isn’t necessarily expense.
Secondly, I think that poor communication can have an outsize effect on access for particular groups. There was an interesting article in the NY Times Magazine about why disadvantaged students are so unlikely to graduate, in spite of scholarships, recruitment and everything else. It seems that there’s a certain class of students — mainly first-generation — who don’t take set-backs and difficulties in stride, but treat them as evidence that they aren’t really university people in the first place. Another set of paperwork, a high sticker price — these are subtle but real disincentives.
The article, by the way, is here: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/18/magazine/who-gets-to-graduate.html?_r=0