I was going to start on a series about growth in non-academic staff numbers today, but the news out of Washington late last week was too spectacular, so I’m bumping it.  Did Obama really say he wanted to make community college free?

Well, yes he did.  But he might not have meant it the way we all heard it.  And whatever happens, it’s unlikely to occur any time soon.

Let’s start with what he actually said (White House fact sheet, here).  He said he would make tuition free for “responsible students” (read: on course to graduate on-time, with a 2.5 GPA) attending community colleges and taking courses towards a 4-year degree, or an occupational training course in an “in-demand” field.  But there were some catches.  Only institutions that adopt “promising and evidence-based” programs to improve graduation rates will qualify.  States also have to agree to participate, kick-in 25% (or thereabouts) of the funding without cutting any other higher education programs, plus adopt a new outcome-based formula-funding system that funds completions rather than enrolments.  It’s not clear how many states will agree to this (nor, indeed, is there much likelihood that a republican congress would agree to those kind of state spending mandates).

There are obviously a whole bunch of questions that weren’t answered in the initial announcement.  The main one was whether Obama meant “free”, or if he actually meant “government would cover the cost”.  That makes a big difference; Pell grants already cover the cost of tuition for nearly half of all community college students.  If that were the standard, it would imply that all of the new money would be going to students currently considered wealthy enough not to need grants.  That would make the new program very similar in distributional consequences to the notionally universal $1,500 refundable tax credit that Bill Clinton introduced in his second term, but which in fact was only available to those receiving less than $1,500 in Pell.

Another question, not raised much in the US, is: if the initiative is in fact successful at increasing the number of students at 2-year institutions (some of whom, to be fair, could simply be people switching from 4-year to 2-year), where are they all going to study?  In many states – California, for example – the systems are already at breaking point.  Who funds the growth required to make this system successful?

A lot of people seem to think that the President really did mean “free tuition” (i.e. no displacement of Pell grants, which are income-based), based on a comment made last week by his spokesman.  But on the other hand, the spokesman also said the program had been costed at $60/billion over ten years, or $6 billion per year, or about $666 per community college student.  Given that average tuition is about $3,800, it’s hard to see how this plan makes sense unless the administration: a) doesn’t expect most states to participate; b) doesn’t think many students will qualify; and, c) doesn’t in fact mean free tuition, but rather just “cover the cost”.  Or maybe the administration threw together a bunch of nonsense numbers that don’t matter.  Regardless, the likelihood of this becoming policy anytime soon is pretty low; it’s value is mainly rhetorical and as a marker for future policy initiatives by future Presidents.

As I said a last year, free tuition in community colleges makes a fair bit of sense.  The main rationale for fees is that: a) there are substantial private benefits, and, b) the clientele is mainly better-off and don’t need all the subsidies.  But those don’t hold true in community colleges the way they do in universities.   So while there might be some better ways to use that amount of money, this is still a generally worthwhile and positive initiative.  Would that a Canadian government could be so bold.