Correlation and Causation in Technical Education

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before:

“In many Northern and Central European countries, including Switzerland and Germany, there are robust apprenticeship programs. In both of those countries, youth unemployment is very low compared to Canada and the U.S.”

Or this:

“As the economy changes, however, it is increasingly clear that this is the polytechnic moment… in the recent recession, youth unemployment was lower in countries with strong vocational training programs.”

There are three propositions here.  One is that Canada’s apprenticeship/vocational training/polytechnics systems are weaker than those in what for the sake of brevity I will call Germanic Central Europe (GCE).  Another is that unemployment is lower in GCE than it is in Canada.  Finally, it is heavily implied that there is some sort of causal relationship at work here; that GCEs have lower unemployment rates because of their educational systems.

Let’s take those three in turn.    It is certainly true that GCE countries have more apprentices than we do. But the term “apprenticeship” means something different over there.  As I pointed out back here, the reason places like Germany have more apprentices is because their set of apprenticeable trades is much wider than ours.  If you limit the analysis to just skilled trades, Canada’s apprentice numbers actually look about the same as Germany’s (our completion rates are much lower – but that’s a less sexy story).

As for “vocational education” and “polytechnics” (terms that are not synonyms): Canada already has the largest non-university tertiary system on the planet.   True, we don’t have a lot of “polytechnics”, but the recent trend in GCE has been to turn these institutions into degree-granting “Universities of Applied Science” with professional rather than vocational orientations.  So yes, GCEs’ technical education systems are differentfrom ours.  But their sources of strength aren’t necessarily in “vocational” training the way we define it.

With respect to unemployment rates, it’s quite true that unemployment among 15-24 year-olds in places like Germany (8.1%), Austria (8.7%) and Switzerland (2.8%) are lower than in Canada (13.6%).  But youth unemployment can’t be examined in isolation: it is a function of overall economic conditions.  The ratios of youth unemployment to overall unemployment tell a different story: Canada’s rate is 1.92, Austria’s 1.85, Germany’s 1.53 and Switzerland’s a freakish 1.04.  Austria’s purported advantage, at least, disappears completely on this more sensible comparison.

Finally, the issue of causation.  Dial things back about twelve years; Germany had the same “dual” system of apprenticeships, but unemployment rates were twice what they are now.  If apprenticeships “cause” low unemployment now, did they also “cause” high unemployment twelve years ago?  Obviously not.  Claiming causation in one period but not another looks like cherry-picking.

In short, it’s good to invest in top-notch technical education, but be wary of over-ambitious claims made about its impacts.

Posted in

5 responses to “Correlation and Causation in Technical Education

  1. Good morning, I`m a reader from Germany. I must tell you some of the reasons of a low unemployment rate in Germany:

    one of the reasons: Germany has got the lowest share of young people in the European Union, the demographic situation in Germany is a reason, because there are not so many young people seeking for jobs.

    Another reason is a statistical effect, because in Germany Apprentices are a part of the employers in the statistics, in other countries they are a part of school students. That means that they have an influence to the statistic, because they are a part of the workers. The real unemployment rate is underestimated because of such statistical reason.

    260 000 students are waiting in a transitional system, where they dont get a training, 15% of young people upt to 34 have never been in training and apprenticeship, before.

    in some cities only 14% of students in schools get a place in an apprenticeship, Bielefeld is a good example for that.

    normally apprenticship should be a highschool education for students between 15 and 18, in reality all of the apprentices today are older than 20. So it is not a secondary school any more. Many students have to wait some years and don`t find an employee.

    most of the apprenticeships are in the low wage sector and more than they need, supermarktes and similar Business, in important sectors they don`t haven enough students.

  2. I have also critizise some aspects of the dual training system:

    There is no access to higher Education up to now as a standard for many apprentices. Many years in the past and also now, if they want to get a new qualification, than they have to go to school again. This is wasting life time. I was in an apprenticeship without any opportunity to get a further qualifikation or access to higher education.

    If apprentices or workers become unemployed after an apprenticeship, it is really difficult to get a new qualification, because there is a lack for second qualifications, when you don`t have an Highschool certifikate like Abitur, than your only way to a new qualifikation is the unemployment agency, but they often don`t want to pay for that. The system only works, when there are enough new apprenticeships, but in Germany only 22% of firms have one and older have it difficult, to get a second one.

    Even for married women, who have no access to unemployment agency services, because they get the money from a husband, than have no possiblity to get a new qualifikation. There is a lack of school-based alternatives, like in other countries like Sweden or Norway.

    the freedom of choice which Job i want to do is not really realised in this system, because many times, there are not enough plurality of apprenticeships for young people. A friend of mine, must become hairdresser, because there was no possibility to get another training.

    in my opinion people must have more freedom to choice, which education they want to learn, this is a big reason, why there must be collegebased and school-based alternatives.

    There are also cultural reasons, why such an system don`t fit to other countries. It is too unflexible for many other countries I think. People must have it easier to change qualifications and get a new one.

    I think culture in Germany think, that people should work in the same job or firm for the whole life and this system trains them only for such a lifetime job. But in reality many people must change qualifications, work in other sectors, or there are shrinking sectors. This system is really unflexible I think.

  3. you can translate this document, so you can read more about some problems of the system.

    http://forum-kritische-paedagogik.de/start/wp-content/uploads/downloads/2010/08/LohmannStossSekII.pdf

    Here are Person gives an impression about problems of the system in the past decades.

    http://hamburg-stadtfueralle.de/wp-content/uploads/06.03._Entwicklung-der-Besch%C3%A4ftigung-in-HH-Anzeichen-f%C3%BCr-eine-Spaltung-des-Arbeitsmarktes.pdf

    On page 4 you can see, that there is job growth only for people, who have a Higher Qualification. There is also a lack of fulltime and good quality jobs for people with apprenticeship. Green is Higher Education, yellow apprenticeship and blue without qu.

    in important parts of the job system, there is not enough training and education I think. In your Country and US you have college education for respiratory therapist with high standards I think.

    But in Germany the system is not innovative enough to create good and enouph qualifications. Job markets are changing fast, also High tech, Automatisation, Computerisation and other effects need a more scientific based education, I think.

    this is my own opinion, but i find it important, that the newest and scientific knowledge is always the standard in all parts of education. And than it must be transferred into practice.

    http://www.mdr.de/fakt/pflegedienst-pflegepersonal-ausbildung-therapie-patienten100.html

    Your countries have got degrees for respiratory therapists. In Germany you can only get such a qualification, if you have an apprenticeship as a nurse and than it is not the standard to have such a qualification, when you work in such a field. To become a nurse you need an apprenticeship place, an employer. In other countries like Danmark a person can decide to study nurse without an employer. you can also study it as an online degree. This is more flexible.

    I hope that you understand my comments. I want to tell you, that flexible systems with many options and ways to learn something are good.

  4. http://www.ceocouncil.ca/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Lerman-Expanding-apprenticeship-training-in-Canada-April-2014.pdf

    I have read, that you also want to force young people to start a vocational education earlier. You must know about German culture, that it is forcing children at a young age to vocational ways, only. I think, this aspect of culture doesn`t fit to other countries. Vocational orientation starts in Germany in Hauptschule at the age of 10 or 11! Too early and it is a form of diskrimination, because Mio. of children went to the wrong schools. The school system is from the 19century and is not a modern level like in other countries with highschool systems and more general education. It is from a time, where people of the normal folk should not be allowed to get more education than vocational, a little ability to read and Religion for the simple folk.

    in Europe most of the children want to go to school longer and want to have freedom to choose.

    You can translate that,too, here it is:

    http://www.t-online.de/eltern/jugendliche/id_62654158/berufswahl-vertagt-europas-schueler-wollen-laenger-lernen.html

  5. 6) Germany has well-articulated paths from apprenticeships to degrees. In Canada, this only exists at a couple of polytechs (eg. NAIT/SAIT), though the situation is improving.

    Sorry, but Germany has got 16 different states with own rules.

    The full access to Higher Education is only for people who are Mastercraftsmen or have a vocational further education, how many years takes this?

    in my own apprenticeship i have to work 4 years to be allowed to take a further education f.eg — this needs a time from 2 years…. than we have 6 years and than i am allowed to go to Higher Education… This is wasting lifetime.

    and for apprentices it is since only some years, that they can make a test to get university entry . Every federal state has his own rules. Many apprentices go to school a second time to get access to higher education.

    for not every apprenticeship is a further education available , it is also no general access to further education because of the chambers who create the rules, that you need a long working time or a special apprenticheship with is suitable to the further education.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Search the Blog

Enjoy Reading?

Get One Thought sent straight to your inbox.
Subscribe now.