Higher Education Strategy Associates

January 07

How Universities Are Becoming More Labour-Intensive

Yesterday, I showed how universities in New Brunswick were – despite welcome new promises of stable funding from the provincial government – facing problems because salary increases were going to eat all the available new money.  Some of you possibly thought I was being alarmist.  But it’s easy enough to show how this can happen.  In Ontario, it already has.

For data here, I pulled the financial statements for the last five years at the “Big 8” (Toronto, Waterloo, Western, Queens, Guelph, York, Ottawa, and McMaster), which comprise about 75% of all university spending, and hence are a pretty good proxy for the university system as a whole.  It’s not as good as Stastcan data; but, on the other hand, it gives me something past 2011, which is the most recently-available Statistics Canada/CAUBO report.  And here is what it shows:

Figure 1: Total and Salaries/Benefits Expenditures, 8 Largest Ontario Universities, 2009-2013













Expenditures at these institutions rose from $7.4 billion in 2009 to $8.6 billion in 2012, before falling back to $8.45 billion in 2013.  That’s a 14% nominal increase, which is about 6% after inflation – not bad.  Meanwhile, salaries and benefits rose from being 59% of overall budgets to being 63% of overall budgets.

Now that doesn’t sound so bad, either.  But let’s look at the same data another way:

Figure 2: Increases in Total and Salaries/Benefits Expenditures, 8 Largest Ontario Universities, 2009-2013













This looks considerably less good, doesn’t it?  As new money has come in and permitted higher spending, salaries and benefits have eaten fully 92% of the increase.  This, friends, is the consequence of increasing salary mass by 5% per year, when income is only growing at 3%.

And the consequences for the rest of the budget?  After salary increases, the Ontario 8 only had $83 million to put into non-salary areas.  On a base of about $3 billion, that’s an increase of about 3%, but after inflation, that’s actually a 4% reduction, i.e., a fall of about 1% per year.  And of course much of that money is earmarked for things like research, so in terms of disposable income, it’s likely that the figure is actually much higher.

Outside Ontario, we don’t see quite the same pattern.  I pulled 7 other comparable institutions (UBC, Alberta, Calgary, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, McGill, and Dalhousie) and found that on the whole they spent a greater proportion of their money on salaries (66% in 2013, compared to 63% in Ontario), but that there was no sudden change in the way money was spent (only 67% of new expenditure went to salaries, meaning the average went unchanged).  That said, there were differences inside this group.  Most actually managed to decrease their salary-to-total expenditure ratios; the two exceptions were Alberta (where salaries took 86% of all new expenditure) and McGill (where they took an astounding 179% of new expenditures).

For a set of institutions that endlessly bang-on about how hi-tech they are, Ontario universities are apparently one of the very few industries in the provinces that are becoming more labour intensive over time.  And that won’t change until compensation increases start coming into line with increases in income.

January 06

The New Normal

Happy New Year!  Did everyone have a great vacation?

The highlight of my vacation was going to Argentina and stumbling upon the world’s most unfortunately-named university in a suburb of Buenos Aires, named “Morón”.  It’s called – wait for it – Unversidad de Morón.  Seriously, their international marketing people must have the most difficult jobs in higher ed.

Anyhow, I wanted to start the year by talking about what was a hopeful development from last fall – the Government of New Brunswick’s decision to pre-announce university funding increases for the next two years.  Instead of waiting for provincial budget-time to make an announcement (which, quite honestly, is far too late for institutions needing to do serious planning), the government pre-announced not one but two(!) years’ worth of future increases: 2% for 2014-15, and another 2% for 2015-16.  And they also told institutions they could raise domestic undergraduate tuition by 3% for each of the next two years.  Assuming no big increase in domestic or international student numbers, that means the university can count on overall budget increases of around 2.33%.

Great news, right?  Guaranteed new money!

Put the champagne down, guys.  2.33% still isn’t enough to keep pace.  Cutbacks will inevitably follow.  To understand why, let’s look at professorial pay.

UNB profs are currently without a contract – and indeed are very close to a strike on the issue.  But their previous four-year contract was a fairly generous one.  It moved the salary grid upwards by (on average) 2.4% per year, plus everyone not at the top of their pay grade got annual bumps of (on average) about $1300/year.  What percentage that works out to in total depends on where your place is in the pay grid, but for new associate professors, on average, it was about 4% per year on the nose.

So, 4% in total on academics pay.  Benefits tend to scale at the same rate, as does non-academic pay, so 4% on those, too.  At most Canadian universities, salaries and benefits are about 60% of all expenditures.  Multiply that out – 60% times 4% = 2.4%, and right there we’ve already used up slightly more than the entire announced increase in funding.

That is to say: if labour contracts continue to play out the way they have over the past four years, there is exactly no money left over for anything else.  But since inflation erodes buying power, that actually implies ongoing cutbacks of all non-salary items of about 2% per year.  And that’s the best case scenario for a university, since I think few provinces will be as generous as New Brunswick this year.

The reality, then, is this: either staff pay settlements have to start coming into line with increases in institutional income, or the new normal is going to be continuing pay hikes, combined with annual cutbacks in all non-salary items.

That’s the math, and there’s no escaping it.

December 16

Three to Watch

A few years ago, Jamil Salmi put together a neat little book called, The Challenge of Establishing World-Class Universities, in which he noted that there were basically three ways to make a world class university: you can upgrade existing institutions (what most governments do), you can merge them (the French approach), or you can build entirely new institutions from scratch.

That last option sounds ludicrous to most people in western countries.  Who would bypass existing institutions which, over time, have have received billions of public dollars, and start a new one from scratch – wouldn’t that be a waste? But there are countries where this kind of approach conceivably makes sense: countries lacking in strong extant research universities, countries strong enough to ignore complaints from existing universities, and countries with shedloads of resource money with which to pursue this goal.  So far, three countries fit the bill: Saudi Arabia, Kazhakstan, and the Russian Federation.

The Saudis’ King Abdullah University of Science & Technology (KAUST) is the furthest along of the three.  Having started life with a $10 billion endowment from King Abdullah, it’s been able to attract some top scholars simply because there’s so much money floating loose here for research (“detailed grant requests?  We don’t need no stinkin’ detailed grant requests!  Have another laboratory!”).  It’s even co-ed – though, since it’s all behind a walled, guarded compound, it’s hard to see any larger social movement being started as a result.

Kazakhstan’s Nazarbayev University seems the longest shot of the three.  The money’s there, but the academic talent isn’t – and frankly, naming your new temple of free thought after a President-for-Life probably doesn’t send the best message to prospective academic staff.  Like KAUST, Nazarbayev has gone out and signed a shedload of academic co-operation agreements with big, “world-class” institutions in order to get a bit of a halo; but hiring’s not going well, let’s put it that way.

The third, Russia’s Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology (“Skoltech”), is actually just one part of a new tech hub (Skolkovo), which is meant to recreate Silicon Valley, with Skoltech playing the role of Stanford.  Skoltech, a joint venture between the Skolkovo project and MIT, is actually a bit of a sideshow within the Skolkovo project, and certainly doesn’t have quite as grand a set of ambitions as either KAUST or Nazarbayev.  And though it all seemed to be off to a promising start, there’s now questions about funding, and there are persistent rumours that, as a project of former-President Medvedev, its future under President Putin may not be so bright.

It will be interesting to chart these institutions’ progression over the coming years.  At the moment, you’d likely bet on KAUST being the one to be in the best shape five years from now – already, it is producing some important scientific outputs; but, over the much longer term, Skolkovo, with its heavy tech links, might end up being the most intriguing of three.  Only time will tell.

December 09

Apprenticeships: Canada vs. Germany

Let’s play a game called: “Comparing Canadian and German Apprenticeships Using Actual Statistics, Instead of the Usual Misinformed Anecdotal BS That Passes for Analysis in Canadian PSE Policy Circles”.  We can start by asking: does Germany have more apprentices than we do?

Statistics Canada puts our apprenticeship population at 426,000.  In Germany, the number is 1.43 million.  But remember, Germany’s population is 2.6 times larger than Canada’s.  Normalized per 1000 of population, the relative number of apprenticeships looks like this:

Apprentices per 1000 of Population, Canada and Germany














Source: CANSIM 477-0053; Statistische Bundesamt, Bildung und Kultur Fachserie 11, Reihe 3, “Berufliche Bildung”, author’s calculations

So, overall, we do indeed trail Germany in terms of number of apprentices.

But the claim usually made on behalf of Germany is not just that it has lots of apprentices, but that these apprenticeships are the source of Germany’s manufacturing prowess.  Certainly, the skilled-trades brigade makes this point, and they seem to have convinced Essential Skills Minister, Jason Kenney, of this as well.

The problem is that it’s not true.  And that’s because German apprenticeships for the most part have nothing to do with what we call “skilled trades” (basically, anything involving construction or motive mechanics).  Check this out:

Proportion of All Apprentices that are in Construction/Mechanics Trades, Canada and Germany













Source: CANSIM 477-0053; Statistische Bundesamt, Bildung und Kultur Fachserie 11, Reihe 3, “Berufliche Bildung”, author’s calculations

Want more detail?  Let’s look at some of the key occupations that various pundits claim are a problem in Canada.

Electricians.  This is Canada’s largest apprenticeship category, with 64,000 apprentices. Germany has… 35,000.  Adjusting for population size, that means Canada has 4.75 electrician apprentices for every one in Germany.

Carpenters, Plumbers.  These are our second and third largest occupational categories, with 51,000 and 44,000 apprentices, respectively.  Unfortunately, we can’t make a comparison here because Germany only publishes statistics for the top 20 apprentice occupations, and neither carpentry nor plumbing make that list.  Yes, really.

Automotive Mechanics.  Germany is slightly ahead here – 58,530 apprentices to our 41,760.  But normalized for country size, Canada has 85% more auto mechanic apprentices than Germany.

So if German apprentices aren’t in skilled trades, what are they doing?  Well, take a look at the top ten apprenticeships in each country (the % of all apprenticeships represented by each occupation is in brackets).











Source: CANSIM 477-0053; Statistische Bundesamt, Bildung und Kultur Fachserie 11, Reihe 3, “Berufliche Bildung”

You see, German apprenticeships are not about “skilled trades” in the way we think of them.  They incorporate occupations in the service industries that actually employ most people in a modern economy, like retail, insurance, banking, health, and public service.  Ours don’t.  End of story.

Bottom line: if Germany has a lead on Canada in terms of skilled trades, it’s not because of the number of apprentices they train.  To the extent that apprenticeships account for this lead at all (as opposed to, say, industrial structure), other factors like apprenticeship completion rates, or the quality of the actual training delivered, are more likely to be at work.

So here’s a New Year’s resolution for the entire country: we’re all going to shut the hell up about needing to have, “more skilled trades apprentices, like Germany”, and move on to more productive conversations.  OK?

Grazie, Buon Anno.

December 06

Ciao, and Some Holiday Reads

Hi from Santiago, Chile, where I am doing a bit of work this week.  This last term has been an awfully busy one, and so I’m cutting the blog off for the holidays, today – a week earlier than usual.  You will, however, still get a weekly email from me over the break (except for the actual week of Christmas), and I’ll be back again full-time on Monday, January 6th.

Thanks to all of you for reading over the past few months, and for all of you who are active on the comment board, and for giving me hell on twitter – you should all know I am sincerely very grateful for your feedback.  It keeps me on my toes, and I nearly always learn something.  Much appreciated.

Since its the holidays, I know you’re all dying for some reading recommendations for the holiday season.  So here’s a brief re-cap of some of the more notable reads from the past year:

The Great University Gamble, by Andrew McGettigan.  This is a genius little book.  It clearly explains, in a refreshingly small number of pages, all the baffling changes that the UK higher education system has undergone in the past decade (but especially in the last three years under the conservatives).  The UK is a deeply weird place these days – you don’t know how weird until you’ve read this book.

Higher Education in Americaby Derek Bok.  Actually, with the possible exception of the sections on professional education, this one’s a bit of a snoozer.  But it’s one of those “serious” books everyone is supposed to read, so I’ll put it on this list so you can ask for it as a gift, and not spend your own money on it.

Stretching the Higher Education Dollar, edited by Kevin Carey (one of my favourite US higher ed commentators) and Andrew Kelly, this is an interesting look at some of the most potentially “disruptive” ideas currently circulating.  It’s unfortunately a little heavy on first-heavy practitioner experience (i.e. guys blowing their own horn), and short on third-party analysis, and so occasionally the articles have the feel of being written by people who’ve drunk their own Kool-Aid, but it’s not bad for all that.

The Entrepreneurial Stateby Mariana Mazzucato.  This is getting a lot of good press (made the FT books of the year list), and it’s not a bad read.  Personally, I think the author frequently overstates her case – assuming risk and being entrepreneurial aren’t the same thing – but it’s a useful corrective to the market-fetishist nonsense that often passes for innovation literature.

And finally, if anyone feels like getting me a gift (hi, mom!), number 1 on my wish list is the incredibly lush-looking, The Library: A World History.  Must-have nerd porn.

Happy holidays, everyone!

December 05

Income-Contingent Loan Problems

Everyone who’s ever given thought to the matter thinks that income-contingent loans are superior to mortgage-style loans.  At any given level of debt, it’s always preferable for low-income borrowers in repayment to have the option to suspend payments, and make them up at a later time.  Pretty much all the objections to income-contingency – especially here in Canada – are about matters extraneous to the actual method of loan repayment (e.g. fees would rise, interest is too high, etc.).

The reason that income-contingent loans work for borrowers is that they operate on the principle of, “can’t pay today?  No worries, catch you tomorrow”.  On average, that’s true: where students have low-income early in their repayment period, their incomes later on usually rise sufficiently to pay off the debt without difficulty.  The problem is that while this is true on average, it’s not true for everyone.  And that means loan losses. While losses are part and parcel of any publicly subsidized loan system, at least with “regular loans” you can see those losses more or less as they occur, and can make provisions for them on that basis.

But the Australian Higher Education Contribution Scheme (HECS), and its English counterpart, basically assumed away the problem of losses (no worries, catch you tomorrow).  That led them to do a lot of really dumb things with respect to loan repayment thresholds.  In both countries, when tuition fee increases were in the offing, governments tried to calm students by offering them breaks on repayment terms: in Australia, “no repayment” now occurs below A$51K in annual income; in England, the threshold rose from £10K in 1998 to £15K in 2005, to £21K in 2012.  And each time it rises, a few more borrowers became less likely to repay the full value of their loan.

The problem is that, eventually, tomorrow arrives.  In Australia, of the $25 billion that has been issued in HECS debt, $6 billion has been written-off – that’s up from just $2 billion in 2006 (and that’s in addition to billions in loan interest subsidies).  In England, they’re so worried about the long-term costs of non-repayment that they’ve effectively halted any growth in enrolments, so that the loan portfolio doesn’t get any bigger.

None of this is really the “fault” of income-contingency, per se.  It’s more the fault of deliberately setting repayment thresholds at levels where poorer graduates won’t repay; lower the threshold and the problem goes away.  It’s not even really clear that it’s a problem – ensuring that the poorest graduates don’t repay their loans is arguably a pretty sensible subsidy.

But there’s still a public policy failure here.  Governments lost control of part of the education budget because the “catch you tomorrow” attitude meant there was no default mechanism to tell them when things were going wrong.  And that actually is a problem with income-contingency – and future loan program designers need to consider it carefully.

December 04

Hard Thinking about Soft Skills

So, as I predicted a few days back, Canadian Council of Chief Executives’ CEO, John Manley, gave a speech to the Canadian Club (available here) in which he challenged the conventional wisdom about skills crises – which is presumably why it got zero press coverage.  He began by making the following points, based on a survey conducted of 100 major Canadian employers:

  • Skills shoratges are a problem, but only 11% of employers said it was a big problem (see graph below);
  • The shortages are in IT, Engineering, and skilled trades.  Scientists and researchers are the easiest positions to hire;
  • When evaluating hires, industry-specific knowledge is only the 6th-most important consideration, behind people skills, communication skills, problem-solving skills, analytical abilities, and leadership skills.

Figure 1. From the Standpoint of Your Company, How Much of a Problem are Skills Shortages?













At this point, however, Manley’s speech took a very weird turn.  Having laid out the case for soft skills being the crux of the skills shortage for many companies, he veered into a discussion of Canada’s increasingly mediocre results on PISA/PIAAC literacy and numeracy tests, and why Canada needs to improve.  Though it’s hard to disagree with the call for better skills in reading and math, it’s also not immediately obvious how either has a whole lot to do with, say, leadership or people skills.

(Canada seems to suffer from a strange inability to effectively link problems to solutions in education.  Need soft skills?  More math classes!  Need a few more pipefitters in Alberta?  Canada Jobs Grant!  It’s almost like a form of policy Tourette’s or something – when presented with a skill-related problem, we blurt out whatever’s already on our mind, rather than work out some kind of reasoned response.)

Anyways, all of this aside – it occurred to me that there’s an enormous branding opportunity for an institution that actually decided to put “soft skills” at the core of its curriculum.  Pretty much all of them, save leadership, can be taught through something not a million miles from an existing curricula – and even that could be incorporated without too much difficulty.

Certainly, to be credible you’d need to make a full-scale curriculum revamp, which would be neither simple nor quick; but think of the upside for a university or college: a school that put leadership and communication at the core of its curriculum would be offering something that is both in line with the traditional liberal arts (rhetoric was one of the seven liberal arts, after all) but that is also fundamentally in line with what today’s employers want.  It would give a school an interesting sales pitch both to employers and students.

I’m not sure every school would want to do it, but for small-to-medium size schools with enrolment challenges (e.g. Trent, Acadia, St. Thomas), “Soft Skills U” would be an interesting niche to try to occupy – if it were done seriously, and not simply slapping a label on what the institution already does.

December 03

Things We Take for Granted in Student Assistance

Last week, I had the pleasure of talking with federal and provincial student aid leaders, in Toronto, about global developments in student assistance.  I told them there were a lot of interesting developments in different places, but they weren’t necessarily applicable to Canada because of different national contexts.

Context matters in student assistance – not everything we have here is available to student aid types elsewhere.  Here, for instance, are just a few of the things we take for granted when we make student aid policy:

1)      A government rich and trustworthy enough to run a lending program.  Not everyone has enough cash-on-hand to lend directly.  And of those that try to get banks to participate via loan guarantees, not all are trustworthy enough to be able to make a credible guarantee (if you were a bank, what value would you put on a loan guarantee from, say, Vanuatu?).

2)      Accurate need assessment.  Loans are based on family income, but how do you assess need when no one trusts the data?  In Japan, for instance, a nation of small shopkeepers, they won’t create a grant program because, fundamentally, they don’t believe enough people are telling the truth on tax forms, which form the basis of the need assessment process. 

3)      Money shows up when government says it will.  When government here says money will be available in September and January, that’s when it shows up (individual SNAFUs aside).  But in much of Africa, government programs run hand-to-mouth.  If tax receipts are a little slow, the loans board doesn’t get the money until October, or maybe November.  Cue student riots.

4)      The ability to track and contact students.  At a minimum, you kind of need a phone directory.  Most of Africa and Asia, which got mass telephony with the cell phone, doesn’t have that.

5)      A credit bureau.  Valuable partly because they help track borrowers, they’re also important because without them, there are few consequences for defaulting.  In African countries where credit bureaus do not exist student loan programs lose over 50% of their loans.

6)      Privacy.  Some countries don’t have our pesky privacy laws.  Kenya, for instance, will publish the names of delinquent students’ in the paper.  It’s remarkably effective.

7)      A belief that recent graduates should have adult middle-class living standards.  As I’ve noted previously, in much of Asia, loan repayment periods are 4-6 years.  No one thinks this is onerous.  The attitude is, “you’re young and unmarried – pay this off, then move out of your parents’ house and start consuming”.

All of which is to say that technology, laws, institutions, and social conventions play a huge role in how student aid is administered.  We take it all for granted… but every once in awhile, we should step back and remember how fortunate we are that we can do so.

December 02

OK, So How Should the Humanities Present Themselves?

You’ll recall that last week I wrote some pretty blistering stuff about the way humanities profs sometimes defend the value of their field.  A few of you wrote back saying, “well, how would you do it, smart guy”?

The short answer is: the way Paul Wells does in his 2010 article, In Praise of the Squishy Subjects (read the whole thing. It’s worth it).  He points out that in the real world, where societal problems are incredibly complex and can’t be explained by simple cause-and-effect, what the humanities do is get people used to the idea of complexity.  The fact that they do so by getting people to read material that’s hundreds of years old is irrelevant.  It’s not just that classics are classics, it’s that:

If you spend a few years wrestling with the idea of society as propounded by Hobbes, Locke, Mill, Rousseau and Marx, you come away with a better understanding of all the alternative ways our own society might choose to configure itself, with their attendant risks. If you study the fur trade in British North America, you learn something lasting about the contribution of aboriginal Canadians to our politics and economics, and you begin to understand the behaviour of today’s Canadian businesses a little better. Read Goethe or Cervantes in the original and you understand things about Germany and Spain today that Goethe and Cervantes cannot have imagined.

Bingo.  The world always needs to be approached from a variety of lenses, and the humanities teach you how to do that.  Plus, as Wells says, since societies can’t know in advance what they’re going to need to know (all those Arab language and history degrees looked pretty useless in August 2001), it’s handy to have people around who know all sorts of weird things.  Humanities are thus also an insurance policy.

That’s the way I’d defend humanities in their current state.  With some small tweaks to the way they are set up, I could imagine two defences:

1)      Humanities Leverages Science.  You’ll note that a lot of humanities-types these days like to throw around that Steve Jobs quote, the one about how results only really sing when technology is married to the liberal arts.  However, this would be a way more convincing defence of the humanities if any humanities programs were themselves actually involved in such marriages.  Though there is some super-interesting digital humanities stuff going on out there, it ain’t penetrating down to undergraduate level.  Humanities programs that took those “many lenses” we talked about earlier, and applied them to some practical technological problems, would likely be extremely popular.

2)      Reposition Humanities as a Luxury-Good.  You know what?  Lots of people think humanities are fun, challenging, and interesting, and they pay extraordinarily good money to study it.  Look at AC Grayling’s College of the Humanities in London, charging twice the going rate (£18,000).  Look at any number of Liberal Arts Schools in the US charging $30,000 plus.  Who cares if other people don’t think it’s “worth it”?  The market speaks, baby.  The problem is, this route only works if universities have the cojones to go with a premium pricing strategy, which I’m guessing most don’t (although if I were, say, Mount Allison, I would definitely want to think about this).

So there you go.  No denigrating other fields, no self-absorbed equation of the humanities with civilization itself.  Just plain, simple non-histrionic arguments.  Let’s give them a try.

November 29

Unorthodox Dropout Statistics

Every once in awhile, some policy-maker or journalist gets their knickers in a twist about dropout rates.  And whenever that happens, people start looking for data.  Which, in this case, basically doesn’t exist.

Institutions have their own non-completion data, but since lots of people switch institutions for one reason or another a non-complete doesn’t equal a “dropout”.  Our national unit-record system – Statistics Canada’s Post-Secondary Student Information System – is supposed to be able to solve this precise problem, but for reasons too boring to relate is unable to do so, except in Atlantic Canada (see my colleague Ross Finnie’s report on this, here).  Quebec, Alberta, and BC all have provincial/regional data systems in place to look at this, but to my knowledge none have done so.

There is, however, one data source that allows people to track dropouts over time; namely, the Labour Force Survey (LFS).  If you simply take all Canadians between the ages of 25-34 who are: a) not in school; and, b) indicated that they have “some postsecondary education”, and divide them by the total number of Canadians aged 25-34 who are: a) not in school; and, b) either have a degree, or indicate that they have some postsecondary, then what you get is an estimate of the percentage of 25-34 year-olds who are dropouts from the postsecondary system.

This method obviously doesn’t provide precise year-to-year estimates of dropouts; some of the 34 year-olds in the numerator might have dropped-out as many as 15 years previously, for instance.  And due to the nature of the data source, one can’t derive separate rates for universities and colleges.  But it does provide a sense of general trends over time in non-completion.

So, what does the evidence say?  Check out the figure below.

Figure 1: System-wide Non-completion Rates, 1980 to 2010












Source: Labour Force Survey

It turns out that the percentage of former postsecondary students in the 25-34 year old population who dropped-out of school has declined steadily over the past three decades, reaching an all-time low of 9.4% in 2010. This is almost a 50% decline from the 1990 value of 17.1%.  While a definitional change means that pre-1990 data is not directly comparable to post-1990 data (hence the permanent downward shift indicated by a dotted line in the Figure above), it appears that the decline began sometime around 1986 – prior to that date, the dropout rate hovered fairly steadily at just under 25%.

A wise man once said that if a result is big enough, even a really bad experiment will pick-up that result.  It’s the same thing here: using LFS to look at dropouts is, at best, a third – or fourth – best option.  But the result is unequivocal: dropouts have been going down for nearly three decades.

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